research/opportunity-portfolio.md
Workspace snapshot · 09/04 13:00
Opportunity portfolio — 2026-08-29
2026-08-29 reset and selection
The prior provisional candidate failed its gate and was not extended. Eight fresh candidates across five types were compared: Evidence Court classroom game; Caption Detective accessibility lab; Data-Diary consent simulation; Tiny Museum provenance game; Meeting Myth forensic facilitation kit; Patch Notes for Life reflective card product; One-Sentence Constitution club kit; and Lost Context tabletop RPG. All prior candidates and reserved areas were excluded.
Evidence Court ranked first because UNESCO identifies human capacity and human-centred AI use as priorities; Common Sense released current grades 9–12 digital/AI literacy curriculum; TPT shows paid high-school AI-literacy bundles at $28.80–$44; and TPT officially provides marketplace sales, conversion, and earnings measurement. The product differs from free lecture-style resources by being a device-free evidence trial with observable student verdict changes.
Gate: problem 4, differentiation 3, distribution 4, revenue 4, asset 4 — passed. MVP created at product/evidence-court-mvp.md. Proposed price: $8 classroom license. Stop if 100 qualified TPT impressions produce zero preview downloads/saves or if 3 verified buyers produce fewer than 2 classroom completions.
Stopped and reserved concepts are excluded. No product was built or published in this run.
Evidence
- iNaturalist's official BioBlitz guide requires project setup, recruitment, an upload rehearsal, identifier recruitment, and results reporting: https://help.inaturalist.org/en/support/solutions/articles/151000194866-bioblitz-guide
- Its official project guidance says successful projects require active community cultivation, time, and energy: https://help.inaturalist.org/en/support/solutions/articles/151000176472-understanding-projects-on-inaturalist
- The official Ambassador page names clubs, parks, schools, libraries, and nature centers as event partners, while already offering free signs and printables: https://www.inaturalist.org/pages/ambassadors
- Meetup explicitly supports language-practice groups whose organizers choose activity and frequency: https://www.meetup.com/start/practice-a-language/
- Meetup organizer plans start at $29.99/month and include events, attendees, co-hosts, dues, and event fees: https://help.meetup.com/hc/en-us/articles/28677808413197-Organizer-subscription-prices-overview
- Etsy's official in-person guide treats booth planning as a material part of event selling: https://extfiles.etsy.com/worksheets/GuidetoSellinginPerson.pdf
Eight candidates across six types
| Candidate (buyer and outcome) | Existing spend / alternative | First 10 people and action | Price | 10-second appeal / first signal / asset | Score* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neighborhood Micro-Bioblitz event kit for library/nature-center staff who need a first event to move from briefing through upload and result reveal | Staff time plus free iNaturalist guides/printables | One approved organizer-resource listing or current program open call; never unsolicited DM | $19 organizer license | Blank neighborhood becomes shared species map / 3 groups finish / route and prompt library | 23 |
| Repair the Conversation facilitator cards for paid Meetup language-exchange organizers whose mixed-level tables stall after misunderstandings | Meetup from $29.99/mo; self-made prompts; generic cards | Approved organizer-resource venue or relevant open call | $12 group; $39 annual | One misunderstanding becomes three recoveries / 3 organizer runs and reuse / scenario corpus | 22 |
| 10-Second Shelf Test for first-time craft-fair sellers who risk a paid booth without knowing if product, price, and next action are understood | Booth spend; Etsy's free guide; consultants; trial and error | Approved craft-fair vendor resource listing | $15 | Before/after booth snapshot / 5 pre-post comprehension counts / benchmark library | 21 |
| Spoiler Line progress-gated cards for book-club hosts with mixed reading progress | Generic question decks; moderator time | Approved book-club organizer marketplace or open call | $9 club | Visible spoiler boundary / 3 clubs reuse / genre-neutral prompt library | 19 |
| Object Biography Exhibit cards for genealogy-group members who want one heirloom story preserved privately | Genealogy subscriptions; scrapbooks; interview books | Approved genealogy-society resource listing | $14 personal | Object becomes a museum label / 10 completed labels / question taxonomy | 20 |
| Three Viewpoints cards for small-museum volunteer coordinators who want family groups to discuss one object | Docent scripts; scavenger sheets | Museum-educator open resource calls | $29 venue | Three conflicting stories from one object / 2 venue pilots / object-agnostic system | 18 |
| Callback Atlas for narrative-podcast hosts who want listener discussion without running a Discord | Show notes; fan wikis; recap newsletters | Approved podcast-creator marketplace | $12 show | Season becomes a theory map / 3 listener-created maps / mapping grammar | 17 |
| Visual intake and skill-routing board for Repair Cafe organizers who need clearer queues and volunteer matching | Official starter manuals; ad-hoc paper intake | Approved repair-network resource submission | $24 organizer | Chaotic pile becomes repair journey / 2 event reports / routing icon system | 20 |
*Score out of 30: channel fit, release within 72 hours, measurement, emotional appeal, revenue, and 30-day asset.
Decision and gate
Provisional selection: Neighborhood Micro-Bioblitz only. It has the clearest official workflow problem, existing participant graph, observable group result, and shareable artifact. It is not ready to build: free official materials make paid differentiation and willingness to pay the critical unknowns.
- Problem evidence: 4/5
- Differentiation: 2/5
- Distribution feasibility: 3/5
- Revenue clarity: 2/5
- Asset potential: 4/5
- Passed: no
Next falsification: verify one current rules-permissive organizer resource/open-call venue and primary evidence that organizers pay for facilitation materials. If either is absent, reject this candidate; do not automatically promote a runner-up.